In ‘Hitler,’ an Ascent From ‘Dunderhead’ to Demagogue http://nyti.ms/2d7K3o5
Month: September 2016
Explore Mars, Inc. Discusses Elon Musk’s Mars Colonization Project
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The Planetary Society Comments On Elon Musk’s Plans To Colonize Mars
A million people in 40 to 100 years: SpaceX unveils plan to colonize Mars
Posted by Jason Davis
2016/09/28 03:46 UTC
Topics: commercial spaceflight, human spaceflight
Today at the 67th International Astronautical Congress in Guadalajara, Mexico, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk revealed his much-anticipated plan to send humans to Mars.
The presentation, which was streamed live, lasted about an hour. It was followed by a question-and-answer session, during which space news reporters split microphone time with eccentric fans, self-promoters and even one attendee attempting to solicit a kiss from Musk himself. (An impromptu press conference with media was held later.)
Musk’s plans are so ambitious, they nearly defy analysis. Of all the modern private space firms claiming they will ferry tourists to orbit, mine asteroids and set up commercial space stations, SpaceX may stand alone in its ability to present such a staggeringly audacious plan and still be taken seriously. Even NASA might raise more objections if it were to drop an equally zealous version of its current Journey to Mars plans.
Put simply, Musk wants to colonize Mars. Humanity, he believes, must become an interplanetary species before some future calamity wipes our presence from the Earth.
Whereas NASA’s humans-to-Mars plans envision an Antarctica-like research station with a rotating crew of astronauts, Musk wants to have a million people there in 40 to 100 years. He stopped short of saying he wanted to terraform the planet, but frequently alludes to the possibility; SpaceX’s new video on its Mars transportation system ends by showing the Red Planet spinning into an Earth-like orb.
SpaceX
SpaceX Interplanetary Transport System
The plan
Musk envisions up to 100 Mars-bound colonists boarding an oblong spacecraft perched atop a massive rocket at Kennedy Space Center’s launch pad 39A. The rocket’s width would be 12 meters; the entire stack would top 122 meters. By comparison, the Saturn V was 111 meters tall and 10 meters wide at the bottom; NASA’s Space Launch System will debut at 98 meters tall and 8.4 meters wide.
The rocket would be powered by a staggering 42 engines, generating 28.7 million pounds of thrust at liftoff. That’s almost exactly four times more powerful than the Saturn V, which had just five engines. The only other vehicle to attempt an engine configuration on this scale was the Soviet N-1 moon rocket, which had 30 engines and was destroyed four times in four launch attempts.
The booster rocket blasts the Mars colonists into a parking orbit before returning directly to its launch pad for an upright landing. Next, a pad crane lifts a nearby propellant tanker—shaped similarly to the colonists’ spaceship—onto the reused booster. The rocket launches again, sending the tanker into orbit to rendezvous with the passenger ship. After a fuel transfer, it’s on to Mars for the colonists, while the booster and tanker return to Florida to repeat the process.
Musk’s diagrams showed an intention to reuse the booster 1,000 times and the fuel tanker 100 times. That sort of reusability is utterly without precedent; the most re-flown spacecraft of all time is space shuttle Discovery, which completed 39 missions in 27 years. Discovery and its sibling shuttles could carry a crew of seven into low-Earth orbit for a couple weeks; the Mars colonial spaceship would spend between 90 and 150 days en route to Mars.
The cost
Musk estimated it would take $10 billion to develop his transport system. That’s optimistic, but in the realm of possibilities. In 1972, NASA estimated space shuttle development would cost $5.15 billion—roughly $30 billion in today’s dollars (not counting cost overruns).
SpaceX’s estimated cost to build a single booster, tanker and transport ship is $560 million dollars. After the Challenger disaster, NASA paid $1.7 billion for space shuttle Endeavour. By the time the shuttles retired in 2011, it was estimated the program had cost of $209 billion.
Whatever the price tag, it remains to be seen exactly how SpaceX would pay for all this. During the presentation, Musk jokingly used a South Park reference (underpants gnomes) before saying the company would continue focusing on its core business of launching satellites and sending NASA crew and cargo missions to the International Space Station.
At the moment, it can do neither. Earlier this month, a Falcon 9 rocket exploded during a routine propellant filling operation, marking the company’s second payload loss in 15 months. SpaceX has yet to find the cause of the accident, though they recently said the problem appeared to have originated in the rocket’s upper stage helium pressurization system (notably, Musk said the company’s new rocket booster would be autogeneously pressurized and not require such a design).
SpaceX
SpaceX interplanetary transport system on launch pad
Ramping up
Right now, Musk estimates less than 5 percent of his company is working on the Mars project. What few employees are appear to be working overtime; Musk used the phrase “seven days a week” days to describe recent efforts to complete a carbon fiber liquid oxygen tank and test-fire the company’s new Raptor engine.
That 5 percent figure will likely need to increase—soon. While conceding he doesn’t always stick to promised timelines, Musk offered a diagram that showed booster tests starting in 2019, orbital flights kicking off in 2020, and trips to Mars beginning in late 2022. In the meantime, the first Red Dragon—a Mars-capable version of the company’s upcoming Crew Dragon capsule—is still scheduled to fly in 2018. Musk also said the Falcon Heavy rocket, which is essentially three Falcon 9 vehicles strapped together, would debut early next year.
Despite all the details revealed in today’s presentation, many questions remain: What kind of life support systems will be used? Where will SpaceX build all this? How will the colonists stay healthy on their trip? And on Mars? What kind of infrastructure will support them there? Will SpaceX build a NASA-esque Deep Space Network for Mars communications? The list goes on and on.
There are also ethical considerations. NASA builds its spacecraft with the mentality that “failure is not an option,” always keeping in mind tragedies like Columbia, Challenger and Apollo 1. Musk, on the other hand, openly admits people are likely to die.
And what about planetary protection? Will SpaceX’s vision of the future clash with detractors that wish to keep the planet pristine?
Since the moon landings, we have largely trusted NASA to decide how, when—and to some degree, why—humanity should make its first giant leap to another world. Despite the very real questions about whether America’s space agency can sustain the political and programmatic momentum needed to land humans on Mars in the mid-2030s, they stand alone atop the list of possible contenders.
Until perhaps now.
Elon Musk’s claim that he can develop a million-person-strong colony on Mars in 40 to 100 years deserves scrutiny. But there’s no doubt he’s going to try, and we’re likely to see a lot of fantastic innovations along the way.
Musk’s plans are also likely to spark the imaginations of the next generation of scientists and engineers that will pick up the baton, should SpaceX fall short. In what can sometimes feel like a world full of impossibilities, SpaceX is trying to reset the idea of what is possible.
SpaceX
Goodbye, Earth
Bearing 100 colonists, SpaceX’s Interplanetary Transport System departs Earth for Mars.
Thanks to Casey Dreier for suggesting the last line.
Our New “Donald J. Trump Icebox”
After six long years the freezing compartment in our old Samsung refrigerator/freezer went out because of an insulation problem. We could have called a repairman to fix it. (Elena’s preferred method.) I decided that we needed a new fridge. Elena asked me to hold off on buying it for a few months. I was concerned about the outcome of the presidential election. In my mind, if Trump won,we might not have the money to buy a new refrigerator. I decided that it was “now or never.” The new Samsung refrigerator/freezer arrived yesterday. There was some suspense as to whether it would fit into the space occupied by the old refrigerator/freezer as it is larger. It does fit. Forever this new refrigerator/freezer will be known as “Our Donald Trump icebox!” Elena wanted to imbed an unflattering picture of Donald Trump in the front of the new unit.
U.S.: SpaceX Reveals Its Plan to Colonize Mars
Finding the funds for the Mars mission is perhaps the most daunting challenge facing Elon Musk at this point, though it is by no means the only one.
Hillary Clinton’s Moment Of Duende
When my dear Brasilian wife Maria left me in late 1982, I had to learn how to speak foreign languages myself. I started with Spanish. My teachers were two British ladies who had lived in Madrid for a long time. One of my first lessons was the word duende. In one context it can mean a dwarf. In another context it is a magical moment in life. You know at this moment that nothing that has happened before or nothing that will happen afterwards will be as important as this moment in life. You know that you are going to have to call on strength, resources, and special qualities that you never dreamed that you have to prevail at this moment. Last night was Hillary Clinton’s duende moment!!!!
The Movie Sully-“A Must See!”
Sully is a beautiful and very informative movie. We all know the heroic thing that Captain Sullenberger did when he landed his crippled airliner in the Hudson River and saved 155 lives. We saw him become a national hero. We saw him honored by both President Bush and President Obama. He became a regular on national television. He got lucrative book deals and commercial sponsorships.
But what we did not know was that the aviation bureaucracy was not happy with what he did. They were literally trying to disgrace him and strip him of his pension after decades of service with US Airways. Electronic data from the plane reported that one jet engine was still operating at low idle and could have provided power. Sadly this engine went missing. It was only later found. Inspections revealed that the electronic data was wrong and the engine’s turbofans and veins were destroyed. Simulations with actual pilots in simulators first showed that Sully could have glided his plane back to Laguardia Airport or to a couple of airports in New Jersey.
Captain Sullenberger comes across in the film as a man with incredible calm and competence. Without a lawyer to help him, he brilliantly defended himself. He noted flaws in the live-pilot simulations. When corrections were made based on his comments, both simulators crashed before reaching their intended airports. We also see a very modest and a humble man who literally pulled off the impossible. This movie is great for all audiences
If The US Presidential Election Were Held Today
Presidential election poll tracker
YESTERDAY
With only 45 days left until election day, the race for 270 electoral college votes is still too close to call. Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican candidate Donald Trump need 270 electoral college votes to win the presidency. Both candidates will be paying attention to toss-up states such as Florida, North Carolina and Arizona.
Latest prediction
Electoral college votes
Where are the battleground states?
SOLID (141)
CA
NY
WA
MA
MD
OR
CT
HI
VT
DC
LEANING (109)
IL
PA
MI
NJ
MN
WI
NM
RI
NH
DE
ME
TOSS-UP (117)
Fla
Ohio
Geor
N.Car
Va
Ariz
Colo
Nev
LEANING (66)
TX
MO
IA
NE
AK
MT
ME
SOLID (105)
TN
IN
SC
AL
LA
KY
OK
AR
KS
UT
MS
WV
ID
SD
WY
ND
States where the difference in poll numbers between Clinton and Trump is less than 5% are classed as ‘toss-up’ states, those with a difference of over 10% are classed as ‘solid’.
Latest news
Donald Trump suggested at a town hall on “African-American issues” on Wednesday that he would institute a nationwide version of “stop-and-frisk”, a controversial policing tactic, to reduce crime in predominantly black communities. Polls show large majorities of African-Americans oppose it.
Where are the closest races?
The candidates are focusing their attention on states where the races are too close to call. These toss-up states are shown in the table below, which ranks all 50 states and the District of Columbia by polling average, showing the closest races first.
Who is leading in national opinion polls?
National polling average based on four-way race (%)
35404550Jul 1, 2016Sep 22AugSep39.8 Trump41.4 Clinton
The chart above displays the two leading presidential candidates, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Two other candidates with significant support are Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, who is polling at 8.8 per cent, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who is polling at 2.8 per cent. Read about our methodology.
All national opinion polls
Methodology: The FT poll tracker is based on Real Clear Politics (RCP) data and updates at least five times a day as polls are added by RCP staff.
The poll tracker is based on a four-way race, which includes Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, Republican candidate Donald Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. In states where Stein is not on the ballot (Nevada, Oklahoma and South Dakota), a three-way polling
The US Could Find Itself Without A President For Months Or Even Years
Dear David:
Your comments are most appreciated. Let us focus on police violence for a moment. I was raised in the East End of Houston, Texas. This was a very lower-middle class neighborhood. More affluent and well-educated people in Houston “looked down their noses” at the people living there. It was assumed that only Southern Red Necks lived there (Now the area is full of blacks and Latinos.)
In the early 1960’s the Houston Police Department was both hated and feared. Torture of suspects was “business as usual.” If a juvenile were caught doing something wrong, they might not be arrested and taken to Juvenile Hall. Rather they would be put int eh back seat of a squad car. The two officers would proceed to give them a hard beating before releasing them to go home. One day after school I was attacked by a more powerful student. I was carrying a briefcase with heavy books in it. I defended myself by swinging the brief case and breaking my attacker’s nose. The Houston police were called. The man with the broken nose was taken off in an ambulance. Despite the fact that I was acting in self-defense, I was put in the back of a squad car and beaten up. I went home and my father was proud of me for badly injuring my attacker. The next day in school I was taken to the vice-principal’s office and threatened with suspension and a black mark on my school record. My other option was to lay across the desk of the vice-principal while he whacked me in my back side with a paddle several times. I accepted this option.
David as violent and as ruthless as the Houston Police Department was in those days, I cannot remember a case where an unarmed suspect was shot by these fascist police. What has our world come to?
Pollsters and other election professionals are subtly hinting at an election scenario where Trump wins the popular vote and Hillary wins the electoral votes. Trump could very well mount all sorts of court challenges that could drag on for years. No presidential candidate in modern times has done this. (Even Al Gore dropped his legal challenges and let Bush 2 be inaugurated.) The most troubling question is:
“Could Hillary be inaugurated while these court challenges worked their way through the system?”
If the answer is no we might be without a president for months or years. Or Obama might choose to stay on while the mess is sorted out.
Even if she could be inaugurated, she would have a big cloud hanging over her head. All of this would be another example of “Crooked Hillary” in the eyes of Trump supporters. Our country would be fractured and ungovernable.
With kindest regards,
-JackW
Play on: Zimbabwe
From The Economist Espresso: Play on: Zimbabwe
https://espresso.economist.com/89abe98de6071178edb1b28901a8f459
jacksmars 